11. ETRM as a Control System for Long-Dated Risk.m4a

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Power Origination & PPAs Trading Desk Master Program

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Module PDFs

  • Brochure - Power Origination & PPAs Trading Desk Master Program.pdf
  • Module 0 - Power & PPAs From Zero.pdf
  • Module 1 - What a Power Origination Desk Really Is (Chapters 1-12).pdf
  • Module 2 - PPA Market Structure & Reality (Chapters 13-28).pdf
  • Module 3 - Senior Structuring Playbooks (Chapters 29-48).pdf
  • Module 4 - Valuation, Curves & Model Skepticism (Chapters 49-64).pdf
  • Module 5 - Risk, Credit & Capital Survival (Chapters 65-82).pdf
  • Module 6 - Execution, Operations & Lifecycle Risk (Chapters 83-94).pdf
  • Module 7 - Systems, ETRM & Governance (Chapters 95-104).pdf
  • Module 8 - Behavior, Accountability & Leadership (Chapters 105-115).pdf

Module 0 - Power & PPAs From Zero

  • Module 00 - Power & PPAs From Zero.mp4
  • Module 00 - Power & PPAs From Zero.chapters.txt
  • 0.1. MW, MWh, Capacity Factor and What an Asset Actually Produces.m4a
  • 0.2. Load, Generation and Why Power Must Balance Instantly.m4a
  • 0.3. Nodes, Zones and Hubs_ Where a Price Exists.m4a
  • 0.4. Shape_ Why an Hour Is Not an Hour, and How Profile Is Valued.m4a
  • 0.5. The Forward Curve, the Liquid Horizon, and What Lies Beyond It.m4a
  • 0.6. What a PPA Is_ The Parties, the Term and the Obligation.m4a
  • 0.7. Physical vs Synthetic, and What Changes Between Them.m4a
  • 0.8. As-Generated vs Fixed Profile vs Baseload.m4a
  • 0.9. Basis, Curtailment and the Risks That Do Not Go Away.m4a
  • 0.10. Floors, Caps, Collars and Volume Flexibility, Mechanically.m4a
  • 0.11. Discounting a Twenty-Year Cash Flow, by Hand.m4a
  • 0.12. The PPA Valued End to End, Both Directions.m4a
  • 0.13. Who Regulates and Subsidises What.m4a
  • 0.14. The Desk_ Originator, Structurer, Portfolio Manager, and the Handover.m4a

Module 1 - What a Power Origination Desk Really Is (Chapters 1-12)

  • Module 01 - What a Power Origination Desk Really Is.mp4
  • Module 01 - What a Power Origination Desk Really Is.chapters.txt
  • 1. Origination vs Trading - Where Risk Actually Lives.m4a
  • 2. Why Origination Is Trading with a Long Fuse.m4a
  • 3. Senior Accountability for 10-20 Year Decisions.m4a
  • 4. Desk Mandates, Capital Allocation & Return Hurdles.m4a
  • 5. When Not to Originate.m4a
  • 6. Physical vs Synthetic PPAs.m4a
  • 7. Origination vs Portfolio Management.m4a
  • 8. How Origination Desks Actually Fail.m4a
  • 9. Authority, Overrides & Deal Kill Rights.m4a
  • 10. Senior View of Origination P&L.m4a
  • 11. ETRM as a Control System for Long-Dated Risk.m4a
  • 12. Lessons from Failed Origination Books.m4a

Module 2 - PPA Market Structure & Reality (Chapters 13-28)

  • Module 02 - PPA Market Structure & Reality.mp4
  • Module 02 - PPA Market Structure & Reality.chapters.txt
  • 13. Utility PPAs vs Corporate PPAs.m4a
  • 14. Why There Is No “Standard” PPA.m4a
  • 15. Merchant Exposure Hidden Inside PPAs.m4a
  • 16. Fixed-for-Floating Structures.m4a
  • 17. Hub vs Node vs Zonal Delivery Risk.m4a
  • 18. Shape Risk over Long Horizons.m4a
  • 19. Profile Risk from Renewables.m4a
  • 20. Basis Risk That Never Goes Away.m4a
  • 21. Curtailment Risk in Congested Grids.m4a
  • 22. Regulatory & Subsidy Dependency.m4a
  • 23. Credit Risk in Corporate Offtakers.m4a
  • 24. Early Termination Clauses.m4a
  • 25. Change-in-Law Landmines.m4a
  • 26. Liquidity Illusions in Long-Term Power.m4a
  • 27. When Market Assumptions Break.m4a
  • 28. Case Study_ “Safe” PPA That Wasn’t.m4a

Module 3 - Senior Structuring Playbooks (Chapters 29-48)

  • Module 03 - Senior Structuring Playbooks.chapters.txt
  • Module 03 - Senior Structuring Playbooks.mp4
  • 29. Pricing Long-Dated Risk Without Liquidity.m4a
  • 30. Embedded Optionality in PPAs.m4a
  • 31. Shaping Long-Term Exposure.m4a
  • 32. Volume Flexibility Clauses.m4a
  • 33. Floor, Cap & Collar Structures.m4a
  • 34. Proxy Generation Risk.m4a
  • 35. Weather Correlation Over Decades.m4a
  • 36. Managing Residual Merchant Tails.m4a
  • 37. Portfolio vs Single-Deal Thinking.m4a
  • 38. Scaling Origination Without Blowing Risk.m4a
  • 39. Knowing When to Walk Away.m4a
  • 40. Risk-Off Origination Playbooks.m4a
  • 41. Correlation Breakdown Events.m4a
  • 42. Counterparty Concentration Risk.m4a
  • 43. Cross-Commodity Embedded Exposure.m4a
  • 44. Senior Deal Review Framework.m4a
  • 45. Post-Deal Regret Analysis.m4a
  • 46. When “Green Premiums” Collapse.m4a
  • 47. Structuring for Exit (or Lack Thereof).m4a
  • 48. Case Study_ Deal That Looked Perfect.m4a

Module 4 - Valuation, Curves & Model Skepticism (Chapters 49-64)

  • Module 04 - Valuation, Curves & Model Skepticism.mp4
  • Module 04 - Valuation, Curves & Model Skepticism.chapters.txt
  • 49. Long-Term Power Curves - Why They Lie.m4a
  • 50. Shape Forecasting over 10-20 Years.m4a
  • 51. Congestion Forecasting Fiction.m4a
  • 52. Weather Models Traders Don’t Trust.m4a
  • 53. Technology Change Risk (Batteries, Flex).m4a
  • 54. Carbon Price Assumptions.m4a
  • 55. Subsidy & Policy Assumptions.m4a
  • 56. MTM as a Narrative, Not Truth.m4a
  • 57. P&L Attribution for Origination.m4a
  • 58. Model Override Governance.m4a
  • 59. Stressing Assumptions, Not Prices.m4a
  • 60. Consultant Models vs Desk Reality.m4a
  • 61. Managing Analytics Teams.m4a
  • 62. Excel Shadow Books in Origination.m4a
  • 63. When Quant Certainty Destroys Value.m4a
  • 64. Case Study_ Model-Driven Origination Loss.m4a

Module 5 - Risk, Credit & Capital Survival (Chapters 65-82)

  • Module 05 - Risk, Credit & Capital Survival.chapters.txt
  • Module 05 - Risk, Credit & Capital Survival.mp4
  • 65. Risk as Capital Preservation.m4a
  • 66. Long-Tail Merchant Risk.m4a
  • 67. Basis Risk You Cannot Hedge.m4a
  • 68. Liquidity Risk (No Exit Reality).m4a
  • 69. Credit Exposure over Contract Life.m4a
  • 70. Margining & Collateral Triggers.m4a
  • 71. Counterparty Downgrade Scenarios.m4a
  • 72. Stress Testing Policy Reversal.m4a
  • 73. Kill Switches for Origination Pipelines.m4a
  • 74. Who Pulls the Plug - And When.m4a
  • 75. Risk Escalation Playbooks.m4a
  • 76. Trading Through Regulatory Scrutiny.m4a
  • 77. Lessons from Long-Term Power Failures.m4a
  • 78. Texas & EU PPA Lessons.m4a
  • 79. Board-Level Risk Communication.m4a
  • 80. Capital Allocation Mistakes.m4a
  • 81. Portfolio Survival Framework.m4a
  • 82. Case Study_ Desk That Survived.m4a

Module 6 - Execution, Operations & Lifecycle Risk (Chapters 83-94)

  • Module 06 - Execution, Operations & Lifecycle Risk.mp4
  • Module 06 - Execution, Operations & Lifecycle Risk.chapters.txt
  • 83. From Term Sheet to COD.m4a
  • 84. Construction Delay Risk.m4a
  • 85. Underperformance & Claims.m4a
  • 86. Settlement Disputes.m4a
  • 87. Data Quality over Decades.m4a
  • 88. Contract Management Failures.m4a
  • 89. Asset vs Desk Misalignment.m4a
  • 90. Operational Overrides & Audit Risk.m4a
  • 91. Force Majeure Abuse.m4a
  • 92. Renegotiation Reality.m4a
  • 93. End-of-Life Risk.m4a
  • 94. Operational Risk Case Study.m4a

Module 7 - Systems, ETRM & Governance (Chapters 95-104)

  • Module 07 - Systems, ETRM & Governance.mp4
  • Module 07 - Systems, ETRM & Governance.chapters.txt
  • 95. Why ETRM Struggles with PPAs.m4a
  • 96. Long-Dated Deal Capture.m4a
  • 97. Exposure Views That Matter.m4a
  • 98. MTM Under Deep Uncertainty.m4a
  • 99. Reporting for Boards & Regulators.m4a
  • 100. Shadow Systems & Excel.m4a
  • 101. Governance Failures in Origination.m4a
  • 102. Change Control over 20 Years.m4a
  • 103. What a Desk-Grade Origination Stack Looks Like.m4a
  • 104. When Systems Create False Comfort.m4a

Module 8 - Behavior, Accountability & Leadership (Chapters 105-115)

  • Module 08 - Behavior, Accountability & Leadership.mp4
  • Module 08 - Behavior, Accountability & Leadership.chapters.txt
  • 105. Career Risk of Long-Dated Decisions.m4a
  • 106. Incentives vs Long-Term Outcomes.m4a
  • 107. Overconfidence in Transition Narratives.m4a
  • 108. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty.m4a
  • 109. Crisis Leadership Years After the Trade.m4a
  • 110. Culture_ Deal-Making vs Discipline.m4a
  • 111. Ethics & Disclosure Risk.m4a
  • 112. Managing Post-Loss Environments.m4a
  • 113. Succession Risk in Origination Desks.m4a
  • 114. Lessons from Long-Lived Origination Teams.m4a
  • 115. Legacy of a Senior Originator.m4a